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Monday, February 6, 2012

New Trade

First short, SPY @$134.37...half a position, may go higher but didn't want to miss out...

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Explanation of Trade

As noted entered short trade at $132.99 for the following reasons:
  1. Fibonacci Fan resistance level was hit
  2. A/D (Accumulation Distribution) showed a bearish divergence => higher price high on SPY was met by a lower price high on the 15-min A/D line
  3. Both SPY and IYT (Dow Transports): MACD Histogram was negative
  4. TRIN (NYSE arms index) vs. SDS => TRIN Stochastics (short and long term) were both > than SDS counterparts, which is bearish for the stock market

Market is now trading at $132.57, so I covered early @ $132.72...just tough to stay short the market lately, so I'm a bit gun-shy, took the profits early and will watch for the next step.

TRADE ENDED

Covered short SPY @ $132.72

NEW TRADE

Shorted SPY @ $132.99

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Explanation of Trade End

Booked a small profit, much less than hoped for. The market held in even as my indicators told me to turn bearish, which I did, but it took a bit too long for the market to start to break down, so I bailed out and covered a bit earlier than I would normally do. As it turned out the last 15 minutes or so added to the weakness, so more profit could have been made.

Trade Ended

Covered SPY trade @ $132.63

Explanation of Short SPY Trade

  1. NYSE TRIN Index Stochastics > SDS Stochastics (bearish divergence)
  2. SDS MACD has bottomed out, is increasing while price of SDS made a new low (SPY made a new high)
  3. IYT (Dow Transports ETF) Stochastics < SPY Stochastics (bearish divergence)
  4. IYT MACD and SPY MACD are declining while price of SPY made a new high
  5. Money Flow Index > 80