Friday, February 24, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Explanation of Trade Entry and Exit
Entered long trade for the following reasons:
- 50% retracement of Fibonacci Fan from Friday's high to yesterday's open support line was hit.
- 5-min %D Fast Stochastic (%K Interval: 30 periods, %D Interval: 6) for SPY = 10, which is very oversold short-term
- 1-min SDS %D (short SPY ETF) Fast Stochastic (150,30) > 90 which was well above NYSE TRIN Index of approximately 75 at the same time. This is a bullish divergence, reflects the fact that selling of the market (advances/declines, weighted by respective volume)
Closed long trade for the following reason:
Targeted a quick 4 point move, expected a pullback, but the market has continued to surge higher...we hit a prior day support line which made me exit this trade prematurely, but it is a nice profit!
Monday, February 6, 2012
Explanation of Trade Entry and Close of Trade
Entered the short position for several reasons:
- 15-min Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) Line: showed a bearish divergence -- higher closing price on SPY was NOT matched by a higher A/D Line value
- 5-min chart, % D Fast Stochastic (% K Interval: 30, %D Interval: 6) hit a reading of 90, which is "overbought" short term
- 5-min chart, % D Fast Stochastic for SPY > % D Fast Stochastic for IYT (Dow Transport ETF, a good leading indicator of market direction). This is a bearish divergence.
- NYSE TRIN Index Stochastic > SDS (inverse bearish ETF on SPY). This is a bearish divergence for SPY.
Covered for the following reason:
- As market traded off, TRIN Index Stochastic did not move with the sell off...that is a bullish divergence, short-term.
- TRIN Index MACD Histogram readings continue to decline, which is bullish for SPY
Conclusion: Turned into a very short term, but easy, profitable trade...will never go broke taking a profit!
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Explanation of Trade
As noted entered short trade at $132.99 for the following reasons:
- Fibonacci Fan resistance level was hit
- A/D (Accumulation Distribution) showed a bearish divergence => higher price high on SPY was met by a lower price high on the 15-min A/D line
- Both SPY and IYT (Dow Transports): MACD Histogram was negative
- TRIN (NYSE arms index) vs. SDS => TRIN Stochastics (short and long term) were both > than SDS counterparts, which is bearish for the stock market
Market is now trading at $132.57, so I covered early @ $132.72...just tough to stay short the market lately, so I'm a bit gun-shy, took the profits early and will watch for the next step.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Explanation of Trade End
Booked a small profit, much less than hoped for. The market held in even as my indicators told me to turn bearish, which I did, but it took a bit too long for the market to start to break down, so I bailed out and covered a bit earlier than I would normally do. As it turned out the last 15 minutes or so added to the weakness, so more profit could have been made.
Explanation of Short SPY Trade
- NYSE TRIN Index Stochastics > SDS Stochastics (bearish divergence)
- SDS MACD has bottomed out, is increasing while price of SDS made a new low (SPY made a new high)
- IYT (Dow Transports ETF) Stochastics < SPY Stochastics (bearish divergence)
- IYT MACD and SPY MACD are declining while price of SPY made a new high
- Money Flow Index > 80
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